Wednesday, December 23, 2009

Happy Holidays!

The dog is signing off for the rest of the year. Have great holidays and come back to blog the dog in 2010.

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Treading Sideways.........?

There is not much going on in the marketplace lately. It seems we have entered a sideways phase in the market as we tread water @ 10000 on the DOW. However, we must note that recently the CPI appears to be rising. Is this a signal for possible inflation within the year ahead? Is there a interest rate rise in our future? Time will tell................On a side note we here at the dog are working on some special meters for you to get a quick read on the economy.

Tell us what you think........................

Thursday, December 3, 2009

IMF update on the research conference.

The dog wants point you in the direction of a great article from IMF Survey Magazine Online. The article is a brief summary of the recent research conference. The article is entitled "Experts Warn Financial Risks Still High". Here is the article for your review:

Tell us what you think.......................

Thursday, November 19, 2009

Worst-case debt scenario?

The dog wants to view all sides of the economic crisis. This doom and gloom report could not be ignored. The report is from Societe Generale and is entitled "Worst-case Debt Scenario: Protecting yourself against economic collapse". Here is the report for your review:

Société Générale Worst Case Debt Scenario Fourth Quarter Nov 2009


Is the report correct? You decide.......

Tell us what you think................

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

IMF news update on G-20 ministerial meeting.

The dog would like to point you in the direction of a new report from IMF Survey Magazine. The report talks about some results from the recent G-20 meeting. Here is the report for your review:

To stimulate or not to stimulate the economy? That is the question. If so, should the financial sector be taxed for this? How will a tax if levied effect businesses in the micro and macro economic system perspective? What say you?

Tell us what you think............................

Friday, November 6, 2009

Unemployment reaches 10.2% (U-3).

In an employment situation press release the BLS stated that the unemployment level rose from 9.8% (U-3) to 10.2% (U-3). This was more than forecasters expected. Nonfarm payroll employment continued to be down (-190,000). The rate of 10.2% is the highest since April of 1983. The alternative measure of total unemployed including "marginally attached" workers also known as (U-6) rose from 17.0% to 17.5%. Here is the press release and alternative measures for your review:

Press release:

Alternative measures:

The Dow is @10000 which is about late 1990's levels. Unemployment is at early 1983 levels.

Tell us what you think..................

Thursday, November 5, 2009

The "Fed" to continue current loose monetary policy?

The Federal Reserve in a press release (FOMC statement) on November 4, 2009 stated that "The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period." This release is rather interesting because IMHO it suggests that the economy is still in very bad shape (possible stagnation/deflation?). Here is the press release for you review:

Tell us what you think............................

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Is the "Great Recession" over?

The Great Recession IMHO is far from over. The .gov gets positive GDP growth in a month over month report and is calling the recession over? Laughable......(Anyone who knows the Laws of Forecasting from statistics understands that there is not enough data to support such a conclusion). Year over Year data is a much better indicator. So .gov go sell that sunshine to those who have lost their jobs and still looking for one. Furthermore, tell that to those who have had their hours/benefits/pensions cut ("The Underemployed"). This recession will have lasting effects for a long time to come. This is not your normal cyclical downturn. Though currently this is a battle of economic philosophy and how it effects the downturn (Chicago School and its followers vs. Austrian Schools and its followers). Who is right? Time will tell. In the meantime examine these charts:

Chart of Growth in U.S.Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Courtesy of

Chart of U.S. Unemployment
Courtesy of

Tell us what you think.....................

A closer look at the Recovery Act.

The dog wants to point you in the direction of some great information over at the GAO. This information can help you understand where and how the government is spending your tax dollars in hopes to boost the economy. Here is the link to the data:

Tell us what you think................................

Update on IMF gold sales.

The IMF announced that is has sold 200 metric tons of gold to the Reserve Bank of India. 200 metric tons works out to be approximately 7054792.389 ounces of gold. This equivocates to about $7,407,532,008.45 dollars in U.S. currency at the current gold spot of about $1050.00 dollars per ounce. Here is the article:

Boosting reserves in other than U.S. dollars is an interesting move in the global currency scheme IMHO. The dog will keep a close eye on this.

Tell us what you think...............................

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

How did the dollar shortage occur?

The dog wants to point you in the direction of a great paper over at the BIS. The paper is entitled "The US dollar shortage in global banking and the international policy response" and is written by Patrick McGuire and Goetz von Peter. Here is the paper for your review:

This paper is a great examination and analysis (reconstruction of balance sheets) of data leading up to the shortage of the dollar.

Tell us what you think.......................

Sunday, October 25, 2009

Is the safety temporary?

Congrats is in order for the current "Economic Recovery". However, it may be possible that, in economic terms (defined by long periods of time......i.e. years), the recovery could be short lived. It really depends on the time frame in which we define "success" (Dog's Opinion). It may even depend on the economic philosophical lens you observe it through. Here is the article:

Eliminating bias is an important art of scientific objectivism. This could have been lost over the years in analytical thinking. The dog would like to point you in the direction of a great book that might possibly help eliminate biased thinking. Here it is by William Minto, "Logic Inductive and Deductive":

Tell us what you think....................

Thursday, October 15, 2009

Economics and music??

Due to a great request by an excellent individual......... the dog wants you the reader to come up with a music playlist that describes the current economic situation. Currently, we already have two they are:

"The Trees", by Rush

and "Welcome to the Occupation", by R.E.M.

The dog would like to dedicate this live version of "Bittersweet Symphony", by the Verve. What a great movie this was at the time.............

Tell us what you think......................

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

BIS information update.

The dog wants to point you the reader in the direction of a great working paper over at the BIS. The paper is written by Michael R. King and is entitled "Time to buy or just buying time? The market reaction to bank rescue packages". Here is the paper:

It is a fantastic statistical analysis of the financial intervention especially in the area of "CDS" aka "Credit Default Swaps" spreads IMHO.

Tell us what you think...............................

G20 claims financial intervention worked?

The dog always strives to bring you the reader great information. We have found some great info from the G20 meeting at The Pittsburgh Summit 2009. Here is the article entitled "Leaders' Statement: the Pittsburgh Summit":

Did the intervention work (short term)? Possibly. Has the financial alchemy put us in a worse long term situation?......time will tell IMHO.

Tell us what you think................................

Sunday, September 27, 2009

Not so fast..... on a rapid gold price rise?

The dog has been busy tracking this for quite some time. Now we want to bring it to you the reader. The IMF has approved the sale of up to 403.3 metric tons of gold into the market. The dog theroizes IMHO that even though the dollar may devalue further...... gold prices will remain flat, possibly decrease slightly, or not have a rapid rise in price due to this action (sort of a gold stabilization move in the middle of all this global currency printing). Here is the article from the IMF for your review:

Tell us what you think..............................

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Why does this site about economics and behavior exist??

Well, for starters......this site exists for anyone who is interested in learning. Furthermore, no matter what your economic and behavioral beliefs are........ we link you to great information to help you the reader understand what is going on in the micro and macro perspective. Then, armed with this information we hope that it will help you make better decisions in life that yeild positive results. How can you compete with people that have better information than you? Simple. By reading the same information and inter-bank communications they do so you can use it to your advantage. For this, the dog wants you the reader to read up on GAME THEORY(Wiki). Also, read here on GAME THEORY2 (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy). Knowledge is power (Knowing the rules of the game). Executing financial maneuvers faster and better than the next guy will make you a winner of the game (Mastering the game).

Tell us what you think......................

Friday, September 11, 2009

A moment of pause for 9/11.

The dog would like everyone to take a moment of pause for 9/11. This day is special to the dog as I was in Washington D.C. at that time in the NAVY when those tragic events unfolded. My thoughts and prayers go out............

Thanks to everyone for visiting the site. Feel free to leave thoughts in the comment section.

Wednesday, September 2, 2009

Will it take years to recover from the economic crisis?

The dog has just finished reading a great paper by Stephen G Cecchetti, Marion Kohler and Christian Upper entitled: "Financial Crises and Economic Activity". It covers an examination of recessions around the world and the economic consequences of those recessions. It is a must read on the BIS website. Here is the report:

Tell us what you think........................

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Jobless recovery??

The dog wants to point you in the direction of an IMF article. It is entitled "Recession Loosens Grip But Weak Recovery Ahead". Here is the article from th IMF website:

Tell us what you think..........................

Tuesday, August 4, 2009

The "Financial Crisis" solved? Mabye temporarliy.......

The dog just read a great BIS paper that needs to come your way. The paper was written by members from the Bank of Italy and BIS members. The report is entitled "An assessment of financial sector rescue programmes". Here is the paper for you to read (don't want to read the whole thing........just read the executive summary and you will get the picture):

Tell us what you think.................

Data update from the IMF.

This article from the IMF has some great data on the United States. Here is the article:

Tell us what you think.............

Sunday, July 26, 2009

Still stimulating?

The IMF is planning to inject 250 billion special drawing rights aka: "SDR" dollars into the global economy in an effort to combat the global economic crisis. Here is the article from the IMF website:

Tell us what you think............

Tuesday, July 21, 2009

Why you need to ride the Government sponsored market wave?

Understanding market conditions (why we go up or down) is extremly important in investing. I don't know how to put it any more plain than that. I can't spell it out for you but I hope you make some money off this. Here is a video from CNBC with a trader spelling it out for you:

Tell us what you think..............

Monday, July 20, 2009

What is a "Special Drawing Right"?

The Dog found the answer in a great Q&A from the IMF. Want to learn about the SDR? Check out this information from the IMF here:

tell us what you think.................

Sunday, July 12, 2009

A break from all the seriousness.......(Warning.... Explicit Lyrics)

The dog viewed the original and now there is a remix........check it out (Warning.... Explicit Lyrics):

Tell us what you think.............Arab Money?

Audit the Fed?

The dog agrees with Bernanke on this one. The U.S. is so far past the gold standard..... "treasure" aka: "a nations wealth" (for all you Adam Smiths out there), that if the "Fed" is deemed insolvent that would cause some serious economic pain........big time IMHO. Here is a video to support this idea:

Tell us what you think.............

Interesting monetary history from the Mises media.

The dog is always seeking economic information from all sources to examine. Here is the video for your review:

Tell us what you think.............

An interesting set of videos on Rome.

The dog found some great videos on Rome's history. Here are the videos for you:

Tell us what you think............

Tuesday, July 7, 2009

Open forum for U.S. market calls. (Make your case).

Will the market be a V, W, or L shape? DOW 3500? DOW 10000? Inflation? Deflation? Stagnation? Disinflation? You make the call. The dog wants to hear from you. (Students welcome) Make your case in the comments section.

Tell us what you think..................

Thursday, July 2, 2009

The IMF to issue notes?

This is an interesting press release from the IMF. It talks about some of the BRIC nations that intend to purchase IMF notes. Here is the release:

Tell us what you think..............

Monday, June 29, 2009

Madoff gets 150 years.

Well, here is one scheme down (sort of). The dog thinks IMHO that many more people are to be charged and schemes are to follow. Here is an article from Bloomberg on the matter:

Tell us what you think................

Thursday, June 25, 2009

International Central Banks

The dog has added quick links to international central banks to the sidebar specifically (BRIC). Enjoy.

Monday, June 22, 2009

Will the U.S. dollar survive as the currency reserve of choice?

Here at the dog..... we try and point you to relevant information. This is an article from Edmund Conway at the Telegraph entitled "Is this the death of the dollar". The article is important to consider as we here at the dog have been discussing in previous articles that it may or may not be possible for the G20 to switch to a new global currency. Here is the article:

Don't forget to examine our archives at the bottom right of this page for further readings and data related to this subject.

Tell us what you think................

Friday, June 19, 2009

Will the "Theory of Convergence" prevail?

In order to understand where we might go one must understand the philosopy that drives the system. Economic growth........How and why does it occur? The dog wants you "the reader" to contemplate this question (more from the dog will come soon on this very issue). Also, read up on what the U.S. Congress just approved, how that will effect the IMF, and think about the possibility of the "Catch-up effect" working. Here is the article:

Tell us what you think.......................

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Don't know international finance?......You need too!

The dog would like to get you "the reader", in the know by pointing you in the direction of great sources for data. Here is a link to the Bank For International Settlements a great source for international financial data:

Tell us what you think.............

Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Will the U.S dollar be replaced by a new global currency reserve?

Mabye....Mabye not. First, for the U.S. dollar to be replaced as the world reserve currency there would have to be a economically viable alternative. Is there any contenders out there? Any of the BRIC members or the IMF SDR? Next, what would the new global currency be backed by? Gold? Silver? Nothing? A combination? Who is to say? Lastly, what about national boundries? How would peoples behavior and macroeconomic systems within a nation be affected? Well, it may be safe to conclude that this task would be difficult to say the least. Here is a great article from Bloomberg on the topic:

Tell us what you think.............

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Are we (globally) solvent?

This report from the IMF is sobering. The reports projections are very important to examine and consider. You absolutly need to read and understand this data. Here is the report entitled "Fiscal Implications of the Global Economic and Financial Crisis":

Tell us what you think................

The Federal Reserve Balance Sheet?

Here at the dog........ we try and point you in the direction of relevant analysis. We also are working on behavioral and economic analysis of our own to present to you. Right now, we would like to point you in the direction of a report by Peter Stella entitled "The Federal Reserve System Balance Sheet: What Happened and Why It Matters":

Tell us what you think.....................

Sunday, June 7, 2009

Complexity and Selection: A Template for Nationbuilding?

The dog wishes to introduce the concept of a behavioral level of analysis of function rather than form in understanding economic and social issues. In this article, the author promotes the ideas of Glenn and Malott (2004) and incorporating the ideas of established principles of behavioral selection to the solution of cultural problems. Here is the article:

Tell us what you think...............

Why should you examine historical data for unemployment calculations?

Well, here at the dog........ we look for as much data as we can find before reaching any sort of conclusion. Then, we show you the reader what we find and ask; What do you think? We have found some interesting data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics aka "BLS". First, we look at the current unemployment rate from the BLS of 9.4% also known as "U-3". Then, we ask how is that number derived? Next, we ask is that number comparable to past data? Here is a reference from the BLS that can answer these questions:

Now, we search for other computational methods and we find some from the BLS. One method includes "marginally attached workers". Here is an article from the BLS so you can understand what that means:

Lastly, we look at the total of these figures known as "U-6" from the BLS and find total unemployment "U-6" for May, 2009 at 16.4%. Here are the numbers from the BLS:

Tell us what you think............

Thursday, June 4, 2009

A great interactive data mapper from the IMF.

The IMF has created a great interactive data mapper that is coupled with their "World Economic Outlook" report. We recommend that you try it. Here is the link:

Tell us what you think.........

Tuesday, June 2, 2009

Understading data interpretation is the key to better accuracy?

Statistics is an interesting tool. When anyone shows you stats with charts the first question you should have is..........What are the methodologies (metrics) behind the stats and graph being presented? Beware of people who do not create ranges and make a single inference off of a single set of data. What do we mean by that? We mean that when a researcher has created the metrics for a stat those metrics should be adjusted up and down to create a range. One great alternative resource that does this is John Williams over at Shadowstats. We believe that by creating ranges you can create a more accurate forecast. This is similar to the range forecasts that are used to predict where a hurricane will strike. Here are some great ranges estimated by Shadowstats of inflation, money supply, unemployment, GDP, and more:

Tell us what you think...............

More information on inflation (Historical Example Zimbabwe).

Here at the watchdog, we do our best to bring relevant content to you on economics. We believe this video on Zimbabwe's inflation problem is a great example of runaway inflation. Here is the video:

Tell us what you think..........

Why should you pay attention when China laughs at U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner?

United States Treasury Secretary Geithner recieves a response of laughter by Chinese students. Why do the students laugh you might ask? Well, to put it bluntly....... they are smart. America is going down a scary path by printing/creating massive amounts of money. To understand why this is important, you as the reader need to read and comprehend what "Fiat" currency means. Fiat money can and has in the past become worthless due to hyperinflation. Hyperinflation can occur when massive amounts of fiat money is printed/created. Get the picture? As far as investing should be in the U.S. stock market as inflation occurs because it artificially inflates asset values. What does that mean? It means that the market goes up. However, be ready to pull your money out when riding the inflation wave dies down. I hope this explanation helps some people. Here is the article about Treasury Secretary Geithner being laughed at:

Questions? Tell us what you think........

Monday, June 1, 2009

Will GM ever be profitable so taxpayers recoup their money?

The car giant finally faced the inevitable today and filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Supported by monies from the .gov GM will reorganize. Here is the article:

Tell us what you think..............

Saturday, May 30, 2009

Energy independence?

Here at the watchdog we keep a watchful eye out for potential economic game changers. Is it possible the super-laser at the NIF is the solution? Mabye.....mabye not. Here are two articles for you to review. One leaning towards con. You decide...... while we will keep an eye on it:

Article 1:

Article 2:

Tell us what you think.............

The potential plan for handling the financial crisis?

A great source for data is the IMF. If you want to be in the loop you need to keep up with the dog................... Please, take the time to examine the "Global Financial Stability Report" from the IMF:

Tell us what you think...............

Have a question? Ask it in the comments or contact the dog.


Coming soon......... the dog will be posting videos that contain economic topics.

Friday, May 29, 2009

Even the FDIC has to borrow money?

The FDIC is supposed to be an institution of confidence when banks fail. According to a audit by the GAO, even the FDIC has to borrow money to help pay for the financial crisis. Here is the report:

For your reference here is the FDIC website:

Don't forget to examine the FDIC mission, vision, and values:

Your next question should be......Where do they borrow the money from to pay for failed institutions?

Tell us what you think.............

Thursday, May 28, 2009

Oil price sustainability?

The watchdog knows that eventually we will run out of oil. Why? Well, fossil fuels (including oil) are used to power mass production (machines, factories, etc...) and play a major role in the mass distribution of goods and services (cars, trucks, roads, etc...). If you want to understand why the price of oil can go up and down or how it could fluctuate in the future........ Read the report from the IMF G-8 Energy Ministers. Here it is for your review:

Tell us what you think..............

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Knowledge is power.

Since the dog is from Portland, Oregon. We thought it would be appropriate to post a comprehensive review of the regional real estate market. Here it is from Portland State University Center for Real Estate:

Tell us what you think..................

The Bailout Game.

For some relief of all the seriousness we recommend the following game:

Hope you enjoy it as much as we did.

Housing bottom in? Not likely.......

Housing has been on the decline for quite awhile. Is there an end in sight? In our opinion, no; not yet. We think that housing will bottom when the prices represent a fair market value. What we mean by that is prices have not been fair for a long time. In order to sustain an economy it is necessary to have households and/or businesses in order. This should be a no brainer for anyone who took basic economics. This is known as the household-business cycle. When either or both of these entities are out of balance it throws the system off. It is the economic philosophical model (system) that is broken. Let me explain this in simple terms......... Homes that cost 200,000 or more is completly out of reach for most Americans. Sure, banks will loan you the money. However, if you examine a typical 30 year loan you will find that this price eats away @ 50% of an average (median) single earners income. As the global economy takes more jobs away from America there are less people that can afford such a price. In fact, it usually takes two earners to afford a home in that price range. Basing homes on two income earners should increase the risk of default. However, we believe that the brainiacs that do the risk modeling fail to include this in their valuation. In todays economy, at current national savings rates and tremendous debt load that the average American holds; it becomes reasonable to assume when one earner of the two earner equation loses their income for any reason; default is likely. Please take the time to review the new S&P data released today:,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,1,0,0,0,0,0.html

Just click on the March data. Then view the data in graph form with Excel.

Tell us what you think.............

Thursday, May 21, 2009

Will Britain lose its AAA credit rating?

S&P a leading credit rating agency has put Britain under review. According to S&P, Britain's total net debt may reach 100% of the nations GDP. In plain english, that's not good for pun intended. Here is the article from the

Tell us what you think................

Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Why is it important that we understand who is buying U.S. Treasury bonds?

For many years, China was buying our debt by purchasing U.S. Treasury bonds. It is important to note that China holds a vast amount of Treasury bonds as well as U.S. currency in reserve. China has awoken to realize that the bonds and currency they hold may have lost much of the original value. Why does this matter? It matters because the only people purchasing our debt is the Federal Reserve aka "The Fed". What does that mean? It means that the U.S. stabalization of the market and the economy is being supported only by placing Americans in debt. Here is an article you need to read from the Telegraph that covers China's new purchasing move into metals:

Want to understand U.S. debt?? Here is a site:

Here is a direct link to the current debt for the U.S. as of the printing of this post:

Tell us what you think....................

Saturday, May 16, 2009

Economic decide.

Here at the Watchdog we do our best to provide you quick access to relevant data. We believe the "World Economic Outlook" from the IMF is one such report. Furthermore, you read it and get the chance to ask questions or post comments in the comments section. This data can be tough to understand but we put it in plain english for you. In our opinion, it does not look good for advanced economies such as the United States. Here is the report:

Tell us what you think..........

Understanding our future energy crisis.

This report has been out for quite awhile. Most people would have no idea of its existence. However, our goal at the watchdog is to provide you quick access to relevant authoritative information. This report from the U.S. GAO is entitled "Uncertainty about Future Oil Supply Makes It Important to Develop a Strategy for Addressing a Peak and Decline in Oil Production" The report compares and contrasts the relevance of alternative energy sources to oil. Don't want to read the whole thing? Don't worry just read what the GAO found on the first page. Here is the report:

Tell us what you think................

Thursday, May 14, 2009

Want the truth? You can't handle the truth!

Here at the Watchdog we have known for a long time that the U.S. debt load is unsustainable. Finally, the .gov is telling the truth. America has some tough choices ahead........

Here is the link for the Bloomberg article from Obama's town hall meeting:

Tell us what you think....................

Will the U.S. lose its credit rating?

Don't know David Walker? You need too. David Walker was the U.S. Comptroller at the GAO for many years. That means he was the nations top Accountant. This man knows our financial situation better than anyone. Yesterday he was on CNBC. Here is the link:

Also, here is an older GAO video of Walker explaining the U.S. debt problem:

Watch the videos and tell us what you think...........

Wednesday, May 13, 2009

U.S. Market......Going up or down in the next month?

The U.S. stock market has been on quite the ride. This is an open forum.

Tell us what you think..........

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Understanding the housing crisis.

Here at the watchdog, we strive to bring you the best sources for data. For housing data we believe the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices is such a source.

Here is the website:,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,1,0,0,0,0,0.html

The data is in Excel format. To use just download the data. Then, use Excel to view the data in graph form.

Coming soon to the watchdog will be links to authoritative data sources.

Sunday, May 10, 2009

Stress test results accurate??

Take the time to read the short post entitled "Was The Stress Test A Con All Along" by Charles Cooper:

Tell us what you think..........

Saturday, April 25, 2009

Do people know not what they do?

There have been some interesting changes over the last couple of years at the SEC. Please take the time to examine how lobbying, computer risk modeling, and changes to the "Net Capital Rule" may have increased the magnitude of the financial crisis.

Here are the links:

Step One: Understand the history of the SEC (Examine the 1933 and 34 Acts).


Step Two: Check out the lobbying.


Step Three: Look at how the rules were changed.


Tell us what you think......

Friday, April 24, 2009

What will the bank stress tests show?

The results of the stress tests are being released today only to the bankers. We will get the results on May 4, 2009. Any comments on Citi's possible position? Tell us what you think......

Thursday, April 23, 2009

Possibility of Bankruptcy for the United States?

The United States has been on a debt binge for quite awhile. How will we pay for our future obligations? Please take the time to review some possible solutions by Laurence J. Kotlikoff in a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review.

Here is the link:

Tell us what you think..............

Thursday, April 2, 2009

Playing around with the look of the blog....

Check out this from (Video Here)....Example

Tuesday, March 31, 2009

The Economic Watchdog comes into being....

The first test post for the EW.