Worst-case debt scenario?

The dog wants to view all sides of the economic crisis. This doom and gloom report could not be ignored. The report is from Societe Generale and is entitled "Worst-case Debt Scenario: Protecting yourself against economic collapse". Here is the report for your review:


Société Générale Worst Case Debt Scenario Fourth Quarter Nov 2009

Legal:http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/

Is the report correct? You decide.......

Tell us what you think................

IMF news update on G-20 ministerial meeting.

The dog would like to point you in the direction of a new report from IMF Survey Magazine. The report talks about some results from the recent G-20 meeting. Here is the report for your review:

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2009/NEW110709A.htm

To stimulate or not to stimulate the economy? That is the question. If so, should the financial sector be taxed for this? How will a tax if levied effect businesses in the micro and macro economic system perspective? What say you?

Tell us what you think............................

Unemployment reaches 10.2% (U-3).

In an employment situation press release the BLS stated that the unemployment level rose from 9.8% (U-3) to 10.2% (U-3). This was more than forecasters expected. Nonfarm payroll employment continued to be down (-190,000). The rate of 10.2% is the highest since April of 1983. The alternative measure of total unemployed including "marginally attached" workers also known as (U-6) rose from 17.0% to 17.5%. Here is the press release and alternative measures for your review:

Press release: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Alternative measures: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm

The Dow is @10000 which is about late 1990's levels. Unemployment is at early 1983 levels.

Tell us what you think..................

The "Fed" to continue current loose monetary policy?

The Federal Reserve in a press release (FOMC statement) on November 4, 2009 stated that "The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period." This release is rather interesting because IMHO it suggests that the economy is still in very bad shape (possible stagnation/deflation?). Here is the press release for you review:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20091104a.htm

Tell us what you think............................

Is the "Great Recession" over?

The Great Recession IMHO is far from over. The .gov gets positive GDP growth in a month over month report and is calling the recession over? Laughable......(Anyone who knows the Laws of Forecasting from statistics understands that there is not enough data to support such a conclusion). Year over Year data is a much better indicator. So .gov go sell that sunshine to those who have lost their jobs and still looking for one. Furthermore, tell that to those who have had their hours/benefits/pensions cut ("The Underemployed"). This recession will have lasting effects for a long time to come. This is not your normal cyclical downturn. Though currently this is a battle of economic philosophy and how it effects the downturn (Chicago School and its followers vs. Austrian Schools and its followers). Who is right? Time will tell. In the meantime examine these charts:



Courtesy of ShadowStats.com


Courtesy of ShadowStats.com

Tell us what you think.....................

A closer look at the Recovery Act.

The dog wants to point you in the direction of some great information over at the GAO. This information can help you understand where and how the government is spending your tax dollars in hopes to boost the economy. Here is the link to the data:

http://www.gao.gov/recovery/

Tell us what you think................................

Update on IMF gold sales.

The IMF announced that is has sold 200 metric tons of gold to the Reserve Bank of India. 200 metric tons works out to be approximately 7054792.389 ounces of gold. This equivocates to about $7,407,532,008.45 dollars in U.S. currency at the current gold spot of about $1050.00 dollars per ounce. Here is the article:

http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2009/pr09381.htm

Boosting reserves in other than U.S. dollars is an interesting move in the global currency scheme IMHO. The dog will keep a close eye on this.

Tell us what you think...............................