Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Is the "Great Recession" over?

The Great Recession IMHO is far from over. The .gov gets positive GDP growth in a month over month report and is calling the recession over? Laughable......(Anyone who knows the Laws of Forecasting from statistics understands that there is not enough data to support such a conclusion). Year over Year data is a much better indicator. So .gov go sell that sunshine to those who have lost their jobs and still looking for one. Furthermore, tell that to those who have had their hours/benefits/pensions cut ("The Underemployed"). This recession will have lasting effects for a long time to come. This is not your normal cyclical downturn. Though currently this is a battle of economic philosophy and how it effects the downturn (Chicago School and its followers vs. Austrian Schools and its followers). Who is right? Time will tell. In the meantime examine these charts:


Chart of Growth in U.S.Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Courtesy of ShadowStats.com

Chart of U.S. Unemployment
Courtesy of ShadowStats.com

Tell us what you think.....................

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